Boxing predictions: Fundora-Spence, Inoue-Nakatani, more
There was a chance Sebastian Fundora would face Tim Tszyu in his next fight, a rematch of last year’s bloody decision victory, but with Tszyu losing by TKO to Bakhram Murtazaliev on Saturday, Fundora has his eyes on a different opponent: Errol Spence Jr.
Errol Spence, a former welterweight champion, hasn’t fought since his ninth-round TKO loss to Terence Crawford in July 2023. Afterward, Spence had cataract surgery in January. While the fight hasn’t officially been announced, there’s a chance they will fight early next year. Can Fundora take advantage of the opportunity and defeat Spence?
Shakur Stevenson was scheduled to face Joe Cordina this month but suffered an injury to his right hand during training that required surgery. Now Stevenson’s looking for a new opponent — possibly a top five fighter — for February in a Riyadh Season card.
Jack Catterall and Regis Prograis need statement victories when they face each other on Saturday, but can they get it? Rafael Espinoza pulled an upset victory over Robeisy Ramirez last December in one of the best fights of the year. Can they produce another must-see bout in the rematch?
One of the best pound-for-pound fighters, Naoya Inoue, has won world titles in four weight classes and looks unbeatable. But his Japanese compatriot, Junto Nakatani, is looking to get into the ring with Inoue and has won titles in three divisions. While they are still separated by a division, can they meet in the ring next year?
In response to some of these pressing questions, Mike Coppinger and Nick Parkinson have some answers
Don’t be surprised if … Sebastian Fundora defeats Errol Spence Jr.
Fundora and Spence are slated to meet in early 2025, sources told ESPN, in what will be Spence’s first fight since he was dismantled by Crawford in July 2023.
The bout will also be Spence’s first at 154 pounds after fighting at welterweight all of his career. Between the inactivity, new weight class and the tremendous punishment he sustained in his last bout, Spence should be counted as an underdog vs. Fundora.
Fundora is a tricky opponent for virtually any fighter as evidenced by his March title victory over Tim Tszyu. Clearly, Fundora learned from his first career loss — a KO vs. Brian Mendoza in a major upset last April — and decided to use his tremendous height and reach more.
At 6-foot-5 ½ with an 80-inch reach, Fundora has otherworldly size for a 154-pounder. Of course, Spence can’t be counted out after all he’s accomplished in the sport. He was a staple of the pound-for-pound list for years and is one of the best welterweights of the past 10 years. — Coppinger
Catterall told ESPN last week he believes he is in the form of his life, and based on his last outing — a unanimous decision win over former undisputed champion Josh Taylor — it is hard to argue with the English contender. Catterall should be a world champion by now, after a controversial split-decision loss to Taylor in 2022, but a victory over Prograis is likely to give him another shot at glory in 2025.
That desire could fire Catterall to a win over Prograis, whom might have experience on his side as a two-time world champion, but he is out of form and at 35 could also be out of time. His most recent performances suggest Prograis might be on the downward slope.
Prograis suffered a landslide decision loss to Devin Haney in December after he was floored in Round 3 and lost every round in the judges’ scorecards. To rub salt into the wound for Prograis, he had the ignominy of breaking the CompuBox record for fewest punches landed in a 12-round championship bout with 36. He was also lackluster in a split-decision win over Danielito Zorrilla in June 2023, in an underwhelming homecoming fight in New Orleans.
But Prograis is tough, and will be motivated by the need to produce a big performance to salvage his career. In 2019, when he was at his peak, Prograis took Taylor to points in a grueling world title unification fight loss in the World Boxing Super Series final, and that durability is likely to deny Catterall a stoppage win in front of his home fans at the new Co-Op Live arena in Manchester.
As sharp as Catterall’s performances have been recently, he is not a renowned finisher. Since October 2017, Catterall has won by stoppage only three times, all against opponents with double or even triple-digit defeats on their record (Kevin McCauley had 163 losses when they fought in March 2018) and a points decision seems a likely outcome. — Parkinson
Turki Alalshikh, chairman of Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority, is planning a major card for Feb. 22 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and one fight that would certainly fit on such a show would be Shakur vs. Zepeda. The bout has been in the works for months, with Stevenson lined up for a fight against Cordina this month while Zepeda prepares to face Tevin Farmer on Nov. 16.
Farmer, of course, possesses a similar style to Stevenson as a slick, defensive-minded southpaw. Stevenson was never able to fight Cordina as he underwent hand surgery in September. But afterward, Stevenson said he planned to head into the fight with the pressure fighter Zepeda, anyway.
Hopefully, the fight comes to fruition, but first, Zepeda will need to look impressive yet again, and this time the opponent (Farmer) figures to present a sterner challenge. — Coppinger
Don’t be surprised if … Naoya Inoue faces Junto Nakatani in a megafight next year
An Inoue-Nakatani fight isn’t only, perhaps, the biggest fight in Japanese history. It’s also one of the best fights that can be made in all of boxing.
Nakatani finally crashed ESPN’s pound-for-pound list last week with another dominant title defense at 118 pounds. And it’s clear there’s no bigger challenge out there for “The Monster” than his own countryman.
Nakatani has the size, power and technique to give Inoue his toughest fight yet, if not defeat him outright. Such a fight at the Tokyo Dome – where 55,000 people saw Inoue defeat Luis Nery in May — for Inoue’s undisputed 122-pound championship would surely generate massive business.
First, Inoue will fight Australia’s Sam Goodman on Dec. 24 in Tokyo before a possible U.S. return in the spring. After that? We could see Inoue fight his first pound-for-pound opponent yet. — Coppinger
Don’t be surprised if … the rematch between Rafael Espinoza and Robeisy Ramirez produces another fight of the year candidate
The last time these two met, it produced a thriller, with both fighters visiting the canvas in one of the best fights of 2023, so expect another classic clash on Dec. 7.
Espinoza produced an upset over Ramirez after entering the fight under the radar. His volume of punches was decisive, especially late on, to earn a majority decision and win the WBO featherweight title. Espinoza, 30, then impressed again in a first defense fourth-round KO of Sergio Chirino in June.
Two-time Olympic gold medalist Ramirez must produce something different to avenge the defeat, which makes this fight such an exciting prospect. Ramirez, 30, has since sparkled in a fight in June, as he sealed a Round 7 TKO win over Brandon Leon Benitez.
Espinoza’s height (6-1), the tallest world featherweight champion in history, will again be a defining factor in this fight. Can Ramirez get inside Espinoza’s range with his slick skills? He dropped Espinoza in Round 5 in December, before visiting the canvas himself as the volume of punches took its toll in the final round.
The rematch has all the ingredients for another classic. — Parkinson
